今・・・

おそらく、世界大恐慌の時の不況の説明ですが・・・

今回は、個人的には、もっと本質的な問題だと考えています。

ようするに、市場経済システムの欠陥が浮き彫りになった。

そのふたつの大要因は・・・

１．環境負荷は有限である。

２．資源は有限である。

そして、金融危機が発生した。そのふたつの大きな要因は・・・

１．カジノの金融商品が内部にトロイの木馬を組み入れていた（ヘッジファンドなど）

レバレッジが膨らんで、マネーバブルがはじけた。

２．イラク戦争など

資源の無駄使いが金融危機のトリガーになった。


そして、結果として・・・

マネーと実体経済の「ずれ」が発生して、大地震が起きた（世界金融恐慌）

その「ずれ」のことを、大断層と呼ぶ・・・

そして、膨らんだ証券やマネーの価値が一挙に激減した・・・


---
Canberra Times, Wednesday 26 April 1933

DEPRESSION

ITS CHIEF CAUSES

PROMINENT BANKER'S VIEW

Addressing a meeting in London,

Mr. F.G. Goodenough, chairman of
Barclay's Bank Limited, stated that
the long list of catastrophic events
resulting from the world-wide trad-
ing depression is a record of facts,
but a divergence of opinion still exists
as to the principal causes responsible
for the depression. Until there is a
correct diagnosis of the disease and
that diagnosis is accepted both by
Governments and nations generally,
there can be little prospect of the
adoption of appropriate remedial
measures, and of a return to more
prosperous conditions. He devoted a
considerable part of his address to an
examination of those international
factors which lie, he believes, at the
root of the present difficulties.
Obviously, the economic position in
any particular country is influenced
by its own domestic conditions, and
in concentrating upon the wider as-
pects of the problem, the need for
correcting the faults in the internal
situation must be borne constantly in
mind, but if the world-wide de-
terioration which has characterised
the past two years is to be checked
and further difficulties are to be
avoided, it is imperative that those
international forces which have been
mainly responsible for the severe set-
back should be Universally recog-
nised.

In Mr. Goodenough's opinion, the
immediate cause of tho recent dis-
asters "has been undoubtedly the fall
in gold prices of commodities . . . The
flundumental causes, however, are to
be found in the problems of tariffs
and the payment of war debts and
reparations."

Since the war, there have been
insufficient recognition of the fact
that ultimately the only way in which
international indebtedness can be dis-
charged is through the payment by
the debtor and the receipt by the
creditor of actual goods and services.
When the gold standard was adopted
as an international monetary system,
it was never intended that gold
should be treated simply as a com-
modity and used on a large scale for
tho settlement of external debt, but
rather that it should provide the
means of adjusting an unbalanced
trading position through the effect of
movements of the metal upon the
credit structures of those countries
receiving and of those losing the gold.
The failure to allow the gold standard
to function normally in recent years
has been a contributory cause of the
heavy fall in prices, with it's devastat-
ing influence upon economic activity
throughout the world, whilst, in ad-
dition, it has led eventually to the
breakdown of the system. To-day
many debtor nations are in actual de-
fault, whilst others are only meeting
their engagements with great diffi-
culty. As Mr. Goodenough remarked,
"these developments are due, to a
considerable degree, to the unwilling-
ness of certain of the principal credi-
tor countries of the world to accept
payment in the only form in which
debts can now be paid, that is to say,
in goods. The alternative method, of
making payment in gold, has become
virtually impossible, owing to a very
large part of the available stocks of
monetary gold being now concentrated
in the hands of the United States and
France. Unless some means can be
found for gold to be circulated more
freely, it would seem that gold will
no longer be capable of being put to
its normal use as a basis of currency
and credit and as a measurement of
world prices. In that case, gold will
lose its value and those countries
must inevitably be faced with enorm-
ous losses."


--
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